KZN among regions facing growing childhood malaria risk due to climate change
Updated Aug. 4, 2026, 3:28 p.m. | By Lauren Hendricks Researchers say climate change is shifting malaria suitability into areas that have historically…
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Updated Aug. 4, 2026, 3:28 p.m. | By Lauren Hendricks
Researchers say climate change is shifting malaria suitability into areas that have historically recorded fewer cases.
KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) could see one of Africa's biggest increases in childhood malaria risk as rising temperatures make the province more favourable for transmission.
A new international study, published in Nature and co-authored by researchers at the University of Cape Town, says parts of KZN, Limpopo and Mpumalanga are becoming increasingly suitable for the disease to spread.
Co-researcher Christopher Trisos says warming temperatures are shifting the risk into areas that have historically experienced fewer cases, while some of Africa's hottest malaria hotspots could eventually become too warm for mosquitoes to thrive.
“The good news from this study is the increase is projected for Northeast South Africa between 1% and 3% increase in excess cases of childhood malaria because of future climate change,” says Trisos.
“That's well within the capacity of existing technologies, tools, and policies for controlling malaria if we implement them fully and resource them appropriately.”
He says South Africa should strengthen disease surveillance, health systems and prevention programmes now to prepare for the growing threat.
“Investments that are needed are into effective and early surveillance, as well as malaria prevention and control programmes. If those are done in a timely fashion, then yes, I would be confident not just in South Africa, but also other parts of Africa at risk, that malaria elimination is still possible even with climate change.”
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